The 2026–2027 Mortgage Renewal Wave: What It Means for You
Financing · July 31, 2026 · 5 min read
Roughly 1.15 million residential mortgages are coming up for renewal in Canada this year — the largest renewal wave in the country's history. If you bought between 2020 and 2022, here's what you need to know before your renewal letter arrives.
If you bought your home between 2020 and 2022, there's a good chance your mortgage term is coming up for renewal soon. And you're far from alone. Roughly 1.15 million residential mortgages are coming due in Canada this year — making it the largest renewal wave in the country's history. In Quebec, this reality hits especially hard for homeowners who locked in fixed rates around 1.5 to 2.5% during the pandemic.
Why It's All Happening at Once
The five-year term dominates the Canadian mortgage market. Many people bought or refinanced between 2020 and 2022, at a time of historically low rates. As a result, all those mortgages are coming due within a narrow window — between 2025 and 2027. So it's no coincidence that everyone seems to be talking about renewals at the same time this year.
The Payment Shock, in Real Numbers
The numbers speak for themselves. Take a homeowner who locked in a fixed rate of 1.79% in 2021 on a $400,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years. Their monthly payment was around $1,657. At renewal, with current rates hovering around 4%, that same payment climbs to roughly $2,113 per month — an increase of more than $450 a month, or nearly $5,500 more per year.
According to some analyses, about one-third of homeowners renewing this year are facing increases of this magnitude, sometimes 30 to 40% higher than their original payment.
The good news is that the worst-case scenario many feared — a massive wave of mortgage defaults — has not materialized so far. Equifax data shows that serious mortgage delinquencies have increased, but the overall rate remains low, around 0.2%. The majority of borrowers are holding on.
Montreal Stands Apart — But Stay Alert
From a regional perspective, Montreal is in a more stable position than Toronto or Vancouver. According to CMHC, the risk of delinquent loans in the region remains stable, and the pressures observed are mainly linked to consumer debt rather than housing market conditions. That's not a reason to ignore the issue, but it provides a reassuring context compared to other major Canadian cities.
The Options Available to You
If your renewal is approaching, the worst thing you can do is wait for your lender's letter before acting. Most institutions offer a rate hold valid 120 to 180 days before your term matures, and some brokers even recommend starting to shop six months in advance. That gives you time to compare offers rather than simply accepting whatever your current lender proposes.
The choice between fixed and variable depends heavily on your time horizon and risk tolerance. If you plan to sell in two or three years, a variable rate may be advantageous because of a lower break penalty. If budget stability is your priority, a fixed rate protects you against potential increases. Historically, variable rates have cost less than fixed over roughly 85% of five-year periods in Canada — but that's no guarantee going forward.
There are also more technical strategies worth exploring, such as extending the amortization period to reduce the monthly payment, or blending an old and a new rate in the case of an early renewal. These are options worth evaluating with someone who knows your file well.
Why Now Is the Right Time to Talk to a Mortgage Broker
Faced with a wave of this scale, working with a mortgage broker becomes particularly valuable. A broker can shop rates on your behalf across multiple lenders, help you evaluate amortization strategies, and above all keep you from negotiating alone from a position of weakness once your renewal letter arrives. In a context where rates have stabilized but remain significantly higher than five years ago, every tenth of a percentage point you negotiate makes a real difference to your budget.
If your term is coming due in 2026 or 2027, the best time to start preparing is now.