How Tighter Immigration Is Reshaping Real Estate Demand
Market · August 14, 2026 · 6 min read
Quebec has significantly tightened its immigration targets for 2026–2029. The effects are already being felt — in both the rental and resale markets. Here's what it means for buyers, sellers, and landlords.
For a long time, immigration-driven population growth was one of the key pillars explaining the pressure on Quebec's real estate market. That pillar is shifting. Quebec has significantly tightened its immigration targets for the 2026–2029 period, and the effects are already being felt — in both the rental and resale markets.
A Major Policy Shift
The Quebec government has confirmed the complete abolition of the Programme de l'expérience québécoise, which previously allowed international students and temporary foreign workers to obtain permanent residency quickly. The annual permanent immigration target drops to 45,000 people per year between 2026 and 2029, down from approximately 57,000 to 61,000 projected for 2025.
On the temporary immigration side, Quebec is now asking the federal government to reduce the number of non-permanent residents under its responsibility to 200,000 by 2029, down from 416,000 in 2024. That's a reduction of more than half, concentrated primarily in Montreal and Laval.
The Rental Market Feels It First
Non-permanent residents — temporary workers and international students — tend to rent upon arrival rather than buy. Their declining numbers therefore hit rental demand before they affect resale.
CMHC confirms this in its Rental Market Report: the slowdown in demand is driven primarily by the drop in non-permanent residents. The effect is already visible in neighbourhoods near Montreal universities, where vacancy rates are climbing. Some data even show that the average asking rent for a two-bedroom unit among individual landlords fell from $1,745 to $1,640 in a year — a 6% drop. For the first time in decades, many landlords are holding rents flat or lowering them year over year.
What's Happening on the Resale Side
The impact on the existing property market is more modest, but real. Desjardins notes that while non-permanent residents tend to rent upon arrival, their decline ultimately limits the pool of potential buyers over the medium term.
This is most visible in the condo segment, which is more sensitive to demographic shifts than single-family homes. In the Greater Montreal area, condo sales fell 8% in May 2026 — more than single-family homes or plexes — and the average time to sell a condo stretched to 47 days, seven days longer than before. APCIQ itself directly linked this market repositioning to the recent decline in non-permanent residents.
A Trend That Goes Beyond Quebec
This phenomenon isn't unique to the province. According to BMO Economics, Canada's population contracted in 2025 — the first time since Confederation — driven mainly by a sharp drop in non-permanent residents. Net departures exceeded 460,000 people in a single year nationwide.
As a result, more than 180,000 purpose-built rental units are now under construction across Canada, a figure that for the first time exceeds the combined total of condos and other ownership-oriented housing. The Canadian Real Estate Association specifically cited Quebec, alongside Atlantic Canada, when it revised its national sales forecasts downward this summer.
Quebec Is Holding Up Better — But Isn't Immune
Some nuance is needed: Quebec's market continues to outperform most other provinces. Single-family home and plex prices are still rising, and supply remains insufficient relative to demand in many regions. But the dynamics are quietly shifting.
The months-of-inventory count is growing in markets like Gatineau, Montreal, and Trois-Rivières, and softer consumer confidence has been a factor since late 2025.
What It Means in Practice
For condo sellers, especially in neighbourhoods near universities or in areas that relied heavily on newcomer buyers, adjusting price and timeline expectations is becoming important.
For landlords, competition for tenants is intensifying, which may warrant revisiting rental strategies.
For buyers, the slowdown in demand in certain segments — particularly condos in Greater Montreal — may represent a window of opportunity that didn't exist two years ago.
Quebec's real estate market remains solid overall, but the demographic engine that powered it for years is clearly running at a lower rpm. It's a factor worth watching closely for anyone planning a transaction in the months ahead.